2014年2月28日星期五

Strategy Snapshot: Table for Two, Thrashing for One

This hand comes from the online nosebleed cash games, where Phil Ivey has been thrashing seda1 at his personal Deathmatch $500/$1,000 NL table.
(Hand history and stats from PL.com MarketPulse Biggest Pots section.)
Players: Phil Ivey and seda1
Game: Heads-Up No-Limit Hold'em, Cash, Full Tilt Poker
Situation: $500/$1,000 blinds
Stacks: Ivey $313,922.50; seda1 $192,475.75
Table Ivey Deathmatch at Full Tilt is Phil Ivey's personal table. One seat is always reserved for Phil while the other is open for any Tom, Dick or Mary with enough stones and/or enough e-bucks to sit down and try their luck against one of the best in the world.
seda1's identity is shrouded in mystery. I will refrain from speculating but I will say this: he is definitely not a professional poker player. I've railed the game a few times and have noticed seda1 plays infrared contactlenses extremely passively after the flop.
It also seems seda1 never bets his strong hands for value. I saw hands with large overpairs, sets or full houses get to showdown with seda1 only dragging 16/20BB pots. If he were a pro these hands would be played with huge pots or they wouldn't be going to showdown at all.
This all lends credence to the theory he's just a wealthy whale and not a professional poker player.
Barry Greenstein
Rumor was seda1 was none other than the Bear, Barry Greenstein, but based on his play that's clearly not possible. Or is it?
In prior matches with seda1, Ivey had come away the clear winner. In this current battle they had been playing for close to an hour when I picked up the action.
Ivey had initially taken an early lead but the match had swung back in seda1's favor when he rivered a flush after getting his pair and a flush draw all-in on the turn versus Ivey's pair and a smaller flush draw.
After another half hour of grinding, Ivey once again has taken the lead. Now both players have monster stacks - Phil with $313,922.50 and seda1 with $192,475.75. Which brings us to this hand:
seda1 is on the button and makes a raise to $3,000. Phil three-bets the pot to $9,000. The flop comes out 8 J 6. Phil leads out with a two-thirds pot-size bet of $14,000. seda1 smooth-calls in position.
The turn brings the 3 and once again Phil leads out, this time for $39,000. seda1 now raises to $163,000. Phil pushes all-in and seda1 makes the call for his last $6,475. The river brings the 9 and Phil tables A A to beat Seda1's J 7.
Phil Ivey rakes the $384,951 pot and takes the biggest-pot-of-the-month honors!

Analysis

Now let's have a look behind the scenes. seda1 raises three times the big blind with J 7 from the button. When playing heads-up you can raise almost any hand off the button just because position is such an advantage.
As a suited three-gapper with relatively good high-card potential, seda1's J 7 more than meets that requirement. ivey obviously makes a three-bet with his A A, choosing to go three times seda1's initial raise.
Phil Ivey
Ivey: Clearly ecstatic about garnering PL.com biggest pot of the month honors.
The 8 J 6 flop is a relatively safe one and Ivey continues his aggression by making a two-thirds pot-size bet of $14,000. Phil would make this bet with literally any hand that he three-bet pre-flop with.
seda1 makes the call. He most likely believes his pair of jacks are good but decides to wait until the turn to make his move.
The turn brings the bricky 3 and Ivey leads for #39,000. seda1 springs his "trap" and makes a raise to $163,000. Ivey raises all-in and seda1 is forced to call for only $6,475 more.
Unfortunately for seda1, Ivey has aces and that's all she wrote when the river bricks out with the 9.
Now I believe seda1 was thinking fairly correctly, although in this hand Ivey did have him beat marked cards. A large percentage of the time seda1's pair of jacks would be by far and away the best hand.
Ivey could re-raise pre-flop with a very wide range. He would continue his aggression on the flop with his entire range. Once he is called, the range is a little narrower.
Ivey would probably only fire the turn if he had paired the board, held a draw or was on a complete bluff. I would say that seda1's pair of jacks beats the bulk of Ivey's range. This would make the push correct, right? Wrong.
Nelly
Tons of disposable income, Phil Ivey's cell number and horrible post-flop poker game? Yep, seda1 could be Nelly... in crazy town.
Effectively what seda1 did was turn his hand into a bluff. Yes, his hand beats the bulk of Ivey's range. However, once he makes that giant raise, Ivey will just simply fold everything seda1's hand beats and will only call with hands seda1 loses to.
What I believe seda1 should have done is just call and face that bet on the river. What this does is it allows Ivey to continue with hands that seda1 beats but that he would have folded to a turn raise.
In poker you never want to turn a hand with decent showdown value into a bluff. While he was destined to lose a lot of money in this hand anyway, holding top pair to Ivey's overpair, in the long haul this move is definitely a losing one.
In seda1's case, it was clearly a losing move in the short haul as well - his net losses over the six-hour session: $600,000.
To see the full hand history, and about a dozen more high-stakes pots between the two, head to the PokerListings.com MarketPulse section, where you can track all the latest high-stakes action and see the top ten list of biggest pots online over the last day, week and month.

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